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Weekly Gold Outlook: Key Levels and Scenarios for Dec 9 – 13
Higher timeframe analysis, macro drivers and key levels to watch this week across Gold, USD, yields and key events.
- By Nazmus Sakib | Senior Market Analyst, TD Amanah Research | Updated: Dec 8, 2024 14:10 GMT
📅 Week Ahead Dashboard
Weekly Bias
- Bullish
Key Event
US CPI (Dec 11)
Major Resistance
2,060 – 2,100
Major Support
1,960 – 2,015
Primary Risk
- Fed hawkish repricing
1. Last Week Recap
Gold closed higher after a volatile week driven by mixed US data and shifting Fed expectations. The market found strong support near 2,025, followed by a recovery towards 2,050. Real yields remained elevated but stabilised, while USD weakened slightly into the end of the week.
2. Macro Outlook for This Week
- US CPI and PPI data will be the main focus
- Fed speakers may provide further rate guidance
- US 2Y/10Y yields and DXY to watch for direction
- Geopolitical headlines could increase safe-haven demand
❓ Key Questions
- Will CPI re-accelerate?
- Can real yields move higher?
- Will DXY break key support?
- Any fresh geopolitical shock?
3. Technical Analysis (Daily Chart)
4. Order Flow & Volume Context
Open Interest Heatmap
CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) -12.4K
Volume Profile (This Week)
5. Weekly Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (40%)
- CPI comes in softer than expected
- DXY breaks lower
- Real yields decline
Target: 2,100 – 2,180
Neutral Scenario (35%)
- CPI in line with expectations
- Range between 2,025 – 2,060
- Wait for clearer direction
Target: 2,025 – 2,060
Bearish Scenario (25%)
- CPI stronger than expected
- Fed repricing higher
- DXY moves higher
Target: 1,960 – 2,000
6. Execution Plan
WAIT
- Wait for key data (CPI)
- Watch reaction at 2,060 / 2,025
- Avoid early entries
READY
- Look for confirmation after data
- Use intraday structure + order flow
- Prepare entry levels in advance
CONFIRMED
- Take entries with CVD + price alignment
- Use clear risk management
- Manage partials at key levels
7. Final View
Gold remains in a key range ahead of CPI. Our base case is a neutral to bullish bias as long as 2,025 holds. A confirmed move above 2,060 could open the door towards 2,100+. However, a stronger CPI print could push gold back towards 1,980 – 2,000. Focus on data, real yields, DXY and order flow for confirmation.
🎯 Key Levels (Weekly)
Level
Price
Significance
Resistance 3
2,100
Major resistance
Resistance 2
2,060
Strong resistance
Resistance 1
2,050
Key resistance
Current Price
2,042
–
Support 1
2,025
Key support
Support 2
2,000
Strong support
Support 3
1,960
Major support
🗓 This Week's Key Events
Date
Time (GMT)
Event
Impact
Dec 9
13:00
US PPI (MoM)
● Medium
Dec 11
13:30
US CPI (MoM)
● High
Dec 12
19:00
Fed Member Speech
● Medium
Dec 13
15:00
UoM Sentiment
● Low
📄 Related Research
Daily Gold Update: Key Levels after NFP
Dec 6, 2024 • 8 min read
Fed Policy Outlook: What It Means for Gold
Dec 5, 2024 • 10 min read
CVD Strategy Guide for Gold Execution
Dec 3, 2024 • 9 min read
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📍 About the Author
Nazmus Sakib
Founder & CEO, Trader Dadu
Senior Market Analyst
Senior Market Analyst
Focus on Gold, Macro Market Analysis and Order Flow. Sharing institutional-style research for serious traders and investors.